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  1. #61
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    Sep 2002
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    Sonoran Desert
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    2,679
    Originally posted by safesys Surely buyers realizing the name is for sale (either proactively or reactively) is a part of the probability of the name selling.
    Not at all, many eventual buyers are not aware the name was avaiable for sale. Venues like Sedo and forums are mostly frequented by domainers, not end user buyers, and even a domainer may not realize a name was for listed for sale.

    A perfect example of reactive buying from first hand experience is my recent offer to buy a nice 3 letter org for high xxx but during the process and doing research I realized the name had been offered for sale at 2 forum boards plus Sedo during the past year by the old owner at a low xxx price but not spotted by me at the time. If I would have seen those prior prices I would have said sold at the time.

    As far as proactive buying goes often the buyer does not have that specific name in mind (perhaps a variation of the name) but suddenly likes it and wants to buy thanks to actually seeing the name somewhere. That has happened with my buys numerous times.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
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    Wales (UK)
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    Not at all, many eventual buyers are not aware the name was avaiable for sale.
    That makes no sense. You can increase the probability of a sale by contacting potential buyers - that goes for any product. So it follows that probability of a sale includes potential buyers being aware of it.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  3. #63
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    Sep 2002
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    Sonoran Desert
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    Originally posted by safesys That makes no sense. You can increase the probability of a sale by contacting potential buyers - that goes for any product. So it follows that probability of a sale includes potential buyers being aware of it.
    Perhaps there is a misunderstanding. I was referring to this from a buyers view only, not a seller contacting or not contacting buyers.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    .com.au
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    11,051
    Originally posted by trader
    Little doubt Snoopy was incorrect on his definition of value.
    If you are sure of this perhaps you can give an answer to the question I asked you above?

    "Here is real world example for you and a question,

    I bought a domain in 2002 for $1000, the seller had bought the same name a few weeks earlier for $1800. (ie he made a loss of $800)

    What was the value of that domain?"
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    147
    So what is the probability when the buyer seeks out a particular domain as ocurred in this case. Further, how is the probability of sale calculated when the same domain name had offers from five different buyers ranging from approximately $5k to $8k in the course of a year, and all buyers contacted the seller direct? I hope my question wasn't confusing, I did make it rather wordy.

    Regards,

    Showcase

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Posts
    10,987
    Originally posted by snoopy

    I bought a domain in 2002 for $1000, the seller had bought the same name a few weeks earlier for $1800. (ie he made a loss of $800)

    What was the value of that domain?"
    Sentimental ?

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    147
    Originally posted by snoopy
    If you are sure of this perhaps you can give an answer to the question I asked you above?

    "Here is real world example for you and a question,

    I bought a domain in 2002 for $1000, the seller had bought the same name a few weeks earlier for $1800. (ie he made a loss of $800)

    What was the value of that domain?"
    Hello Snoopy,

    I thought I did respond to you 2002 purchase earlier. The following is what I posted:




    Hello Snoopy,

    A person buys a domain for $1,800 and a few weeks he sells it to you for $1,000 correct? Frankly, that sounds like someone that found himself in a situation needing cash quick.

    I too picked up a domain two years ago for far below what it should have been sold for. The seller needed cash and did not have the patience for the domain business. Those variables would not contribute to establishing the value of the domain IMHO.

    Regards,

    Showcase

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Minnesota
    Posts
    4,576
    Originally posted by Magick
    Good point about real estate sale price and tax and absolutely right information. In addition, once the sale closes that becomes your #1 comp in other appraisals since it is the most recent indication of value involving similar property.
    exactly... bingo... Bayesian!

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    147
    Originally posted by DomeBase
    exactly... bingo... Bayesian!
    Hi DomeBase,

    Could you please ShoutIT...............................

    Cheers,

    Showcase

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Wales (UK)
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    So what is the probability when the buyer seeks out a particular domain as ocurred in this case. Further, how is the probability of sale calculated when the same domain name had offers from five different buyers ranging from approximately $5k to $8k in the course of a year, and all buyers contacted the seller direct? I hope my question wasn't confusing, I did make it rather wordy.
    more interested parties means a higher probability of a sale, multiple offers above a certain value means a higher probability of a sale occurring above that level.

    someone not mentioning these facts in their appraisal post means a lower probability of people being able to make an informed appraisal.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Minnesota
    Posts
    4,576
    Originally posted by snoopy
    If you are sure of this perhaps you can give an answer to the question I asked you above?

    "Here is real world example for you and a question,

    I bought a domain in 2002 for $1000, the seller had bought the same name a few weeks earlier for $1800. (ie he made a loss of $800)

    What was the value of that domain?"
    I'll answer your question if you answer mine.

    Given this information only, I would say that if its prior appraisal value was less than $1,800, then when it sold for $1,800 its appraised value should be increased. Then, when it sold for $1,000, its appraised value should be decreased. If I had no other information about it, then my best point estimate of its value after the second transaction would be $1,000.

    Have you ever seen antiques roadshow? Have you ever heard someone say -- "this will sell at auction for around $20,000. It's value is $150" -- or "this will sell at auction for $150, but its value is $20,000"?

    Now... here is my question to you. Your signature says, simply --

    value = price X probability of sale

    Please use this forumula, here, to estimate your appraised value of ShoutIT.com. I want to see how you do it.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    .com.au
    Posts
    11,051
    Originally posted by showcase
    Hello Snoopy,

    I thought I did respond to you 2002 purchase earlier. The following is what I posted:


    hi showcase,

    This question was asked of realnames/trader as his comments that, "If it sold at that price it means the domains value is exactly the same." makes no sense in light of the same domain sometimes selling for quite different amounts in a short period of time.
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    147
    Originally posted by safesys
    more interested parties means a higher probability of a sale, multiple offers above a certain value means a higher probability of a sale occurring above that level.

    someone not mentioning these facts in their appraisal post means a lower probability of people being able to make an informed appraisal.
    Fair statement....................I think I did mention I had been given other previous offers but I did not reference that information in the very first post. I will know better next time.

    Cheers,

    Showcase

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Wales (UK)
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    24,745
    Have you ever seen antiques roadshow? Have you ever heard someone say -- "this will sell at auction for around $20,000. It's value is $150" -- or "this will sell at auction for $150, but its value is $20,000"?
    If they were sure it'd sell at auction for $20k then they would be determining its liquid value (the here and now value). So to say its value was different than its liquid value would make no sense.

    Its different than saying this might sell for 20k over the next x years if someone wants it badly enough, but right now you're unlikely to get more than $150.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    .com.au
    Posts
    11,051
    Originally posted by DomeBase

    Now... here is my question to you. Your signature says, simply --

    value = price X probability of sale

    Please use this forumula, here, to estimate your appraised value of ShoutIT.com. I want to see how you do it.
    You would simply take the estimated price where the chance of a sale is 100% over a short period of time, ie selling it on ebay or listing it on a forum and taking whatever is the highest price.

    I think it would have a 100% chance of selling for between $50-$100.
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

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