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  1. #16
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    interesting thread

    let me give a shot at some definitions

    an "appraisal" is a best estimate of what the sale price of something will be -- based on currently known information

    a "sale price" is the actual price for something

    the issue here is whether one updates "appraisals" when the "sale price" is known

    for my two cents, I think the answer is yes, because the sale price becomes part of the currently known information

    for those of you familiar with statistics, this is nothing new

    it is called Bayesian statistics

    you update your probabilities (appraisal) as new information becomes available

    if you wish to not update your appraisals in the light of known sales information, then I think what you are estimating could be called "true value" -- a concept which is different from either "appraisal" or "sales price" -- but also one which can become divorced from markets and empirical evidence

    ok... three cents... to long for two

  2. #17
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    the issue here is whether one updates "appraisals" when the "sale price" is known

    for my two cents, I think the answer is yes, because the sale price becomes part of the currently known information
    Theres a further spanner to throw in the works - if sales prices were to be taken as the new "value" then that would mean the new owner should be able to resell it for that new value which certainly isn't always the case.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  3. #18
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    /// mod note: this is the point where the posts from the original shoutit.com thread were copied over///
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  4. #19
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    IMHO domain appraisal is akin to searching for a bride. What appeals to one person may not be true for the other. And definitely, the criteria analysed stretches across the board.
    I have seen situations where a "beautiful knockout bride" turned out to be a disappointment and vice-versa.

    Therefore, as in domains, a person pays for it based on their own perceived value, and as in all things time becomes the final arbiter.
    And as they say, "beauty is in the eyes of the buyer", I mean beholder.

  5. #20
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    Originally posted by Magick

    Therefore, as in domains, a person pays for it based on their own perceived value, and as in all things time becomes the final arbiter.
    They might buy on their perceived value, but that very often isn't what something is worth, if the buyer was "the final arbiter" of value then that would imply nobody ever overpays or underpays for a domain. I think people overpay and underpay in domains far more than in most other markets.

    Even then the price somebody pays might be very different to what they actually think the name is worth.
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

  6. #21
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    I did not specifically say that the buyer is the "final arbiter" of value, rather time. However, value is a function of what a seller and buyer agree in the transaction of parting out "money and item" That is to say they are not mutually exclusive.

  7. #22
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    Originally posted by Magick
    I did not specifically say that the buyer is the "final arbiter" of value, rather time. However, value is a function of what a seller and buyer agree in the transaction of parting out "money and item" That is to say they are not mutually exclusive.
    thanks, misread your original post.
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

  8. #23
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    I think there has to be a distinction between a liquid (sell now) value and a value that may be possible at some point in the future if a series of variables are met eg motivated and resourced buyer.

    Theres nothing wrong with offering either (or both) as long as its made clear as to which is being offered and the basis in the case of the latter imo.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  9. #24
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    Originally posted by Bailey
    Too often the buydomains model is used to explain away good solid purchases imo.
    Anyone targeting endusers has basically the same model. If you are implying buydomains quality is low then you could consider someone like dotcomagency who have much higher quality domains and produced stats a while back showing about 3% turnover per year. All the figures I have ever heard of about big sellers specifically targeting endusers seem to fall into a fairly similar band, around 1-3% turnover per year.
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

  10. #25
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    Originally posted by safesys
    I think there has to be a distinction between a liquid (sell now) value and a value that may be possible at some point in the future if a series of variables are met eg motivated and resourced buyer.
    Is the second one a "value" though?, I would call it a potential price not a value.
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

  11. #26
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    Is the second one a "value" though?, I would call it a potential price not a value.
    it's certainly a "potential" thing as it is reliant upon other factors that may or may not come to fruition - but its still a "value". Personally I prefer to look at liquid values and probabiltiy tempered values though.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  12. #27
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    Originally posted by safesys
    it's certainly a "potential" thing as it is reliant upon other factors that may or may not come to fruition - but its still a "value". Personally I prefer to look at liquid values and probabiltiy tempered values though.
    I would say a value is what something is or may be worth in the open market. If it is dependant on factors which all relate to one buyer being able to spend alot on it then that is not a value in my opinion as those factors all disappear the moment it is sold.
    GamesRoom.com, Possum.com, Arithmetic.com on greatdomains auction, low reserves, priced to sell!

  13. #28
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    Originally posted by safesys
    ..... the calibre of the raw names just isn't that great at all

    so does fixating on the miniscule percentage of brandable names that have become household names.
    .....
    Maybe your loosing sight of the tens thousands of promotions that launch each year and the companies that previously wouldn't have thought it necessary to have an individual url identity to support that promotion. www.companyname.com/products/whizphrase just dosen't hack it any more. Of course there are millions of unusable names currently registered and the vast majority will nodoubt continue on their revolving lifecycle. But, then again maybe the vast majority of registrants weren't cut out for a career in marketing either.

    With all due respect I'm not so sure whos fixated on the miniscule number of branded household names. Even individual one-man businesses are begining to see the value of their web identity, even a static page offers a future opening and contact avenue. Of course all of these buyers will move on if the price dosen't appeal but, more likely to another reseller where the price does. I'm sure the the large portfolio owners that you have quoted annual sales percentages have an eye on a longer end game than the current state of play

    Now If this discussion were about how to arrive at a price for created names, then I would say with an equal amount, if not more work than it took to see the connections and appeal in the first place. Of course if a domain of the 'myspace' calibre (in its raw state) dosen't ring any bells then its unlikely that much of the above will either.

    footnote, I started this response before refreshing the page and note the discussion has moved on
    Last edited by Bailey; 2006-08-06 at 08:33 AM.

  14. #29
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    Originally posted by safesys
    Theres a further spanner to throw in the works - if sales prices were to be taken as the new "value" then that would mean the new owner should be able to resell it for that new value which certainly isn't always the case.
    I think that your use of the word "value" apart from whatever signals the market is sending tends to support the idea that you have in mind the third concept of "true value" that I mentioned earlier. We can have different ideas of what the "true value" of something is, apart from whatever signals the market is sending. For example, I am sure if we interviewed many people on the street that many would say that a domain has little "true value". It is just an electronic thingy without any real substance, that could be gone tomorrow if the internet changes. We could present them with sales figures from, say, Domain Name Journal, but that would still not change their mind. They would say those figures are "unrealistic or "inflated" or whatever. It is like the old joke -- "My mind is made up. Don't confuse me with the facts." As another example, what is the "true value" of water? Not much if you have plenty, but infinite if you have none. I think that discussion of "true value" apart from market prices can be interesting, but do not expect consensus because it is not something that can be resolved with empirical evidence. It is inherently subjective.

    With respect to you point above, I would say that when a sale happens, that this new information should be incorporated into the "appraisal" value for something. If the buyer then tries to sell it for the same price they paid and are not able to do so, then this new information should be incorporated into the "appraisal." That is the heart of a Bayesian view of life. One is always learning and adjusting one's view based on new information. This is not just some pie in the sky concept either. In my local township, tax value is based on appraised value. It sortof moves along with general inflation figures when there is no change in ownership, *but* when a house is sold, the appraised value is updated to the sales price... exactly what we are talking about here. The town does not cling to their projected value and say that the buyer is incorrect, they just incorporate the new information and move on.

  15. #30
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    I think we've been down this road before....
    If the admon posted a few guidelines (yes.. yet another sticky) on regards as to what information could potentially help appraisers give a better much eductaed guess, it could only help all parties involved.
    If members want a serious appraisal then get serious and provide as much info as possible.
    Do you own the name?
    if not, will you be making an offer on the domain in question?
    have you had any prior offers?
    (we even had domains already "sold" posted for appraisal after the fact and this done by the seller)
    is there any traffic?
    what type of traffic or rather what's the country of origin for the traffic?
    is there an (old, new, upcoming, currently in the pipeline etc etc ) product or service that shares your domain name ? (or is it very simmilar...?)
    What is it mean? (eg:some of those " nanonano" names from Domebase)
    As far I remember most appraisals given here are/were at the reseller level (Unless requested/specified as an "enduser") .
    ******
    1) reseller appraisals
    I think consensus is easly achieved on regards to reseller prices. (since both ends of the transaction are represented at this forum)
    2) End-user appraisal
    When it comes to "end-user" appraisals , I won't go as far as saying the excersise is futile but... but since we don't have the most "important half" of the equation opinion/reasoning (the one with the check book) ... it will be easier to appraise "Art Deco" by a "new and upcoming Artist" .
    Who could be the potential buyer for this domain?
    Is it MSFT ?
    is it an "excentric collector" with deep pockets ?
    is this name highly needed ? ( as seen in some domains' whois "must need")
    is it a pure vanity play ?
    is it a 16 year old with Mom's credit card?
    etc etc...
    There is to many variants and as of lately many "strange almost irrational" sales and purchases where the "book was thrown out the window"...
    No 2 domains are alike, even when referring to the same "item" the plural could be a lot more valuable (ten fold) than the singular version (and viceversa)
    Also who knows what the buyers position/desposition is ...?

    The potential "end-user" price/value for a good quality generic domain IMHO resides somewhere between
    "the sky is the limit" and "as much as you can get" (or as little as you can pay in case you are the buyer ) all of this while resorting to the least possible violence.
    Last edited by Domo Sapiens; 2006-08-06 at 11:18 PM.
    "

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