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  1. #61
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    Jun 2003
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    The WLS is a 1-year experiment. Buying for more than 1 year is a waste, as the service may well go away.

  2. #62
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    Thumbs up

    Originally posted by ILikeInfo
    If you give the answer of infinity then I feel that suggests these organizations are not very smart about how they spend their money which seems inconsistant with their current success ......
    I've been thinking in this direction too. It's certainly a massive undertaking to stay on top of all possible opprtunities. Were I invested in generating PPC revenue, I (an undoubtably many others small and large), would be researching small to mid-size online stores that are generating moderate to high traffic. I'd be evaluating their standing and seeing which ones I'll be placing WLS subs on. Keeping track of large amounts of placed WLS subs, remaining exchanges (for prospects that take a turn, like mergers, etc), and renewal times will be a challenging and meticulous.

    I'd predict as well that many "small players" will probably start buying WLS subs collectively in high-volume on really LOW prospect names, and very very far out from any existing drop-time (insanely so). Verisign will make its money on speculation in a spectacular fashion, and many small players will hold silly marks of prestige for holding utterly worthless WLS subs like Microsoft.com, Amazon.com, or even Apple.com. Every so often you'll have the shrewd devils that "know" something, or more likely "got lucky" and placed a WLS sub on something that drops... like say WWF.com. The game will likely be best played by people who subscribe to the Wall Street Journal, and understand the big picture... but without a doubt, lots of well... idiots... will have their way with the system. Some will get really lucky when by all rights they shouldn't have.

    ~ Nexus

  3. #63
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    Nov 2002
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    Originally posted by safesys
    To a smaller player, a $24 (assuming no mark up) per domain that has a vey low probability of dropping means they can be spending money for zero return *in total* - even if they take out 10 or 100 wls's on that basis. If they see zero return, how long do you think they would or could continue doing this?

    On the flipside, if a bigger player secures in volume names which have a good chance of dropping with an anticipiated good roi based on their experience who is more likely to stick around?
    Ahhhh, but thats missing a critical issue: There are "a bazillion smaller players"! And each of those smaller players *IS NOT* aware of the previous failures of the other smaller players that followed them -- Even think Vegas and how people walk over to a slot machine that someone was just playing because that machince "is now ready to pay" (sic). Furthermore, as I've suggested in the past, I don't think the smaller players make decisions rationally so ROI is not an applicable argument.

    *AND* the smaller players only need to purchase the WLS slot slightly in advance of the big players willingness to do so -- Thus allowing the less risk averse players to have considerable affect on the big players.

  4. #64
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    Nov 2002
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    14,877
    Originally posted by cambler
    The WLS is a 1-year experiment. Buying for more than 1 year is a waste, as the service may well go away.

    Now that is wishful thinking!

    Just look to Nexus' comments regarding domain holders purchasing WLS slots on their own domains (versus "snaps" *AS THEY DO NOW*) to see why this genie will never go back into the bottle ......

  5. #65
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    Sep 2002
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    Originally posted by cambler
    The WLS is a 1-year experiment. Buying for more than 1 year is a waste, as the service may well go away.
    Come on... I thought you were one of the ones saying that the 1-year experiment is a "joke" and the notion that once in place (for reasons other than legal) WLS is *not* carried forward after the 1st year seems farcical. Even if it is "stopped" after a year, I'm sure people who register subs for periods greater than a year will be adult enough to know the gamble they were taking. Anyone who waits to register subs on names that have more than 1 year on them, just to find out if WLS will move forward after a year... will definitely regret it if it does.

    ~ Nexus

  6. #66
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    Jun 2003
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    453
    So you think that there will be people who buy WLS subscriptions on names that expire in 2011?

  7. #67
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    Nov 2002
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    The "one year test" is just Verslime's politic manipulation to get WLS' foot into the door. A door that once opened will likely have it's door totally blown off -- Rightly or wrongly is not an issue.

  8. #68
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    Nov 2002
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    Originally posted by cambler
    So you think that there will be people who buy WLS subscriptions on names that expire in 2011?

    So you think SEX.COM will go for more than 1 hour without someone purchasing the WLS slot for it?

  9. #69
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    Jun 2003
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    453
    I think sex.com is an anomaly. I think there are probably, oh, 100 or so of them.

  10. #70
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    Sep 2002
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    Even think Vegas and how people walk over to a slot machine that someone was just playing because that machince "is now ready to pay" (sic).
    That propensity to gamble on the slots is normally fuelled by a past winning experience, and the understanding that payouts are guaranteed at some point (even if it is less than the *total* put into it by the previous gamblers).
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  11. #71
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    Nov 2002
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    Originally posted by cambler
    I think sex.com is an anomaly. I think there are probably, oh, 100 or so of them.

    You are refering solely to commercial valuation. I to am talking about that *AND* the personal value a domain has to an individual which then causes the numbers to go far beyond 100.


    Originally posted by safesys
    That propensity to gamble on the slots is normally fuelled by a past winning experience, and the understanding that payouts are guaranteed at some point (even if it is less than the *total* put into it by the previous gamblers).

    Hmmm. Seems to me Domain State allways has more than it's fair share of rediculous recent domain registrations which the owner now has for sale here ....

    Safesys, I applude you for your efforts to educate the domain community and prevent this from happening however this very reality actually proves *MY* point: People are irrational and their optimism frequently overides there good judgement ......

    Also 1 bazillion is >>> 1692, which is the number of Domain State members who currently benefit from your wisdom and experiance ....

  12. #72
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    Sep 2002
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    I don't disagree that many decisions are irrational - but the scale you are talking about, and the costs involved to those small scale domainers - all in a time when at the outset the very best names that *are* most likely to drop will likely be secured by those with resources leads me to a different conclusion for the long haul.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  13. #73
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    Nov 2002
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    Originally posted by safesys
    I don't disagree that many decisions are irrational - but the scale you are talking about, and the costs involved to those small scale domainers - all in a time when at the outset the very best names that *are* most likely to drop will likely be secured by those with resources leads me to a different conclusion for the long haul.
    Ahhh, I see a missunderstanding!

    I'm not saying I expect the little guns to be spending money on WLS slots for a huge number of crappy domain names. I am saying that the little guns *WILL* purchase WLS slots for "good" to "best" names far in advance of the big guns willingness to do so -- And *THAT* is were I feel WLS will cause a "power shift" and allow smaller player better access to better names.

    I also think there will be a lot of stupidity going on to! But again, so long as the big players are not willing to "buy at infinity" the little players will nibble away at the better names over time -- And we all know that "better" is defined just as much by traffic stats as it is with the "awe" of "SEX.COM" .......

  14. #74
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    Sep 2002
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    Wales (UK)
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    I am saying that the little guns *WILL* purchase WLS slots for "good" to "best" names far in advance of the big guns willingness to do so -- And *THAT* is were I feel WLS will cause a "power shift" and allow smaller player better access to better names.
    I can see some logic in that, but at the outset there would be a lot of domains with a high probability of dropping that would be targetted and won by the big guns. Leaving the smaller players the much lower probability ones. Assuming the people take those, how many are going to get lucky? Not many at all (because they are low probability), meaning zero return for the majority - making the likelihood of their continuing to pay good money after bad very low imo.
    When using google for counts - use double quotes for usage counts for multiword terms and set "match type" to "exact" for all search volume lookups. Click here for more info

  15. #75
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    Sep 2002
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    Originally posted by cambler
    So you think that there will be people who buy WLS subscriptions on names that expire in 2011?
    Unfortunately. Not many though, just a handful are targets, and I think mostly for kicks. I can see it as a trend DNJournal will need to write up. People will try to sell "snake oil" WLS subs no-doubt as well. WLS subs that have trademark issues (if ever *caught*) or that have no hope of expiring, or even expiring soon. I can see it happening.

    eBay:
    ***WLS BONANZA***
    "Did you know that you can get on a guaranteed WAITING LIST for the most popular domains? We did! For a limited time, we are selling our most prized WLS subscriptions on auction. We were able to secure these slots over thousands of other vendors. If these company's go out of business, YOU can be the first to have their name! We have Marvel.com, Jordans.com, Mini.com, ISoldMyHouse.com, and over 20 others popular, possibly volatile names (we can't list them all for privacy concerns)! Often times, companies in hard times will fire the very people that manage their online assets! A name will "drop" and be available for anyone who has the corresponding WLS sub."

    All sorts of nonsense potential, and the above is just a clearly stupid spin. Imagine the shades of gray that are even half-way believable to 80% of the people out there who would call themselves "domainers"... or will. Verisign has a "educational" rebate built into the system for registrars that make an effort to inform users of the nature of the new system... but, that isn't going to stop these people who can sell a fridges to an eskimos...

    Just monitor F*ckedCompany.com. I'm sure its revelations will make the eBay-targetted spew too. Just look through its rumor mill and look for companies who are downsizing in the wrong departments. Many people today have NO RIGHT to be having a credit card. Sadly.

    ~ Nexus

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